Friday, December 18, 2020

Climate Change Impact on Flooding and Inundation

Projecting changes in the frequency and intensity of future precipitation and flooding is critical for the development of social infrastructure under climate change. The Mekong River is among the world's largescale rivers severely affected by climate change. This study aims to define the duration of precipitation contributing to peak floods based on its correlation with peak discharge and inundation volume in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB). We assessed the changes in precipitation and flood frequency using a large ensemble Database for Policy DecisionMaking for Future Climate Change (d4PDF). River discharge in the Mekong River Basin (MRB) and flood inundation in the LMB were simulated by a coupled rainfallrunoff and inundation (RRI) model. Results indicated that 90day precipitation counting backward from the day of peak flooding had the highest correlation with peak discharge (R² = 0.81) and inundation volume (R² = 0.81). The ensemble mean of present simulation of d4PDF (1951–2010) showed good agreement with observed extreme flood events in the LMB. The probability density of 90day precipitation shifted from the present to future climate experiments with a large variation of mean (from 777 mm to 900 mm) and standard deviation (from 57 mm to 96 mm). Different patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) significantly influence the variation of precipitation and flood inundation in the LMB in the future (2051–2,110). Extreme flood events (50year, 100year, and 1,000year return periods) showed increases in discharge, inundation area, and inundation volume by 25–40%, 19–36%, and 23–37%, respectively. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Full article: Try et al., (2020a): Projection of extreme flood inundation in the Mekong River Basin under 4 K increasing scenario using large ensemble climate data

Fig. Changes of extreme flood events in the Lower Mekong Basin in the future projection (Try et al. 2020a)

Climate change currently affects the resilience and aquatic ecosystem. Climate change alters rainfall patterns which have a great impact on river flow. Annual flooding is an important hydrological characteristic of the Mekong River Basin (MRB) and it drives the high productivity of the ecosystem and biodiversity in the Tonle Sap floodplain and the Mekong Delta. This study aims to assess the impacts of climate change on river flow in the MRB and flood inundation in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB). The changing impacts were assessed by a two-dimensional rainfall-runoff and inundation model (RRI model). The present climate (1979-2003) and future projected climate (2075-2099) datasets from MRI-AGCM3.2H and MRI-AGCM3.2S models were applied with a linear scaling bias correction method before input into the RRI model. The results of climate change suggested that flood magnitude in the LMB will be severer than the present climate by the end of the twenty-first century. The increment of precipitation between 6.6 and 14.2% could lead to increase extreme flow (Q 5) 13-30%, peak inundation area 19-43%, and peak inundation volume 24-55% in the LMB for ranging of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) and sea surface temperature (SST) scenarios while there is no significant change on peak flood timing. 

Full article: Try et al., (2020b): Assessing the effects of climate change on flood inundation in the lower Mekong Basin using high-resolution AGCM outputs

  

Fig. Changes of inundation probability and inundation duration in the Lower Mekong Basin under future climate change (Try et al. 2020b)



Wednesday, March 7, 2018

Introduction to Water Hydrology

1. Introduction


Water is essential to life and is the defining characteristic of Earth, the blue planet. Hydrology is the study of the global water cycle and the physical, chemical, and biological processes involved in the different reservoirs and fluxes of water within this cycle. This includes water vapor, liquid water, snow, and ice; indeed, one of the things that makes our planet unique is the fact that water can be found in all three phases at Earth surface temperatures and pressures. It is the only common substance for which this is true.

In general, hydrologists focus on terrestrial water, while recognizing that the global hydrological cycle includes exchanges of water between the land surface, ocean, atmosphere, and subsurface. Water in the oceans and atmosphere is mainly studied by oceanographers and meteorologists, however, and these topics are discussed in the Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences sections of the Earth Systems and Environmental Science module. Many hydrologists work at the interface between land surface water and the atmosphere, studying precipitation and evapotranspiration processes in the field of hydrometeorology. These topics are discussed in the module on the Global Water Cycle. Other primary subject areas within the Hydrology section include Surface Water, Groundwater, Aquatic Biology, Water Chemistry, Water Pollution, and Water Resources. This overview introduces each of these realms of hydrological science.

2. The Global Water Cycle


The hydrological cycle describes the perpetual flux and exchange of water between different global reservoirs: the oceans, atmosphere, land surface, soils, groundwater systems, and the solid Earth (Figure 1). Most of the world’s water – approximately 96.3% – is in the world’s oceans, where water molecules have an average residence time of about 3300 years. Glaciers and ice sheets lock up more than half of the remaining water (Table 1), with 90% of this stored in the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Most of what remains lies below the surface, in groundwater aquifers, where vast reserves of water are saline or difficult to access. Freshwater in circulation, on which ecosystems and society so critically depend, therefore makes up only a tiny fraction of Earth’s total water supply. Surface water constitutes only 0.02% of the global inventory, distributed between rivers, lakes, wetlands, soils, and the biosphere. The United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP) estimates the global, accessible freshwater supply to be about 200000 km3. This equates to about 29 million liters of water for each person on the planet. Global water supplies are bountiful, though not easily accessed or equitably distributed.

Fluxes of water between reservoirs are indicated in Figure 2 and are discussed in the Global Water Cycle section of the ESES module. There are high rates of turnover in the atmosphere, biosphere, soils, and rivers; the average lifetime of a water molecule in the atmosphere is 9.2 days, and considerably less than this in the world’s rain belts. Once on the land surface, water can be stored for extended periods in soils, lakes, groundwater aquifers, vegetation, and seasonal snowpacks. On an annual basis, however, discharge from the world’s rivers is in near-equilibrium with global precipitation, returning what the ocean gives up through evaporation.


The global water inventory


The global water cycle


3. Surface Water and Groundwater


Physical hydrologists study the processes of water movement and storage on and beneath the land, exchanges between different hydrological reservoirs, and interactions between water and other natural and human systems (e.g., in ecology, agriculture, or civil waterworks). While surface water makes up a small fraction of the global water reservoir, a large number of hydrologists work in this area. Subject areas within the Surface Water section of the module include consideration of soil water, wetlands, the cryosphere, rivers, and lakes. 

Large reserves of water are stored and routed through subterranean systems, with as much as one third of the world’s population drawing from groundwater for essential municipal and household use. This includes about one third of the United States and 85% of India, amongst other countries highly reliant on groundwater supplies. The Groundwater section of the module examines the essential processes involved in subsurface water flow, the distribution and health of the world’s groundwater reserves, groundwater chemistry, and geological considerations of groundwater science, also known as hydrogeology.

4. Water Chemistry and Water Pollution


While physical hydrologists focus on water quantity and supply, water quality is of fundamental concern for ecological and human health. Enormous resources are committed to water monitoring, purification, desalination, and wastewater treatment, while access to clean water and the prevalence of waterborne diseases are among the most serious issues that continue to face the developing world. Subject areas in the Water Chemistry section of the module include water quality considerations, as well as broader considerations of river, lake, and groundwater chemistry. This includes basic aspects of water chemistry, nutrient cycling in lakes, aqueous organic chemistry, and environmental stresses on water chemistry, such as contaminants and acid rain.

5. Aquatic Biology


Aquatic ecosystems support a wide range of organisms, including microorganisms, invertebrates, insects, plants, and fish. Some hydrologists work in understanding the trophic systems within aquatic ecosystems and their health as a function of environmental conditions such as water temperature and turbidity. Aquatic biodiversity is a major concern in water conservation and restoration projects, as well as water resource management. Concern regarding the biological health of wetlands, rivers, and lakes has led to the idea of ‘ecosystem services’ as a means to quantify or assess the value provided to society by different natural environments, including aquatic environments. While this lens seems biased to the larger species that are of commercial value (i.e. fish), it is understood that healthy waters require the full spectrum of organisms as part of an aquatic ecosystem. The section on aquatic biology provides considerable detail on many of these species.

6. Water Resources


Water resource management includes consideration of all of the above disciplines of hydrology. Water supplies are allocated and diverted to a range of agricultural, municipal, industrial, hydroelectrical, and ecological needs. Some of these water uses are consumptive, removing water from the system (e.g., crop irrigation). Other types of water use return the water to a river, lake, or to the ground, but the water often requires treatment to restore it to a natural state; sometimes this is not possible (e.g., industrial tailings ponds).

The balancing act involved in water management includes a broad range of stakeholders and includes water policy and legal experts. Hydrologists have essential input to these complex and sometimes confrontational deliberations and negotiations. They also play a central role in applied hydrology – engineering of major waterworks to manage water. Water distribution systems have been a hallmark of civilization since Babylon, and the modern stamp on this includes major hydroelectric dams and reservoirs, urban waterworks, and water treatment facilities. 

These and other tools help governments to manage water resources in a way that serves societal and ecological needs. However, water resource management is one of the world’s greatest challenges due to competition for limited resources, regional disparities in water supply and affluence, mounting global water demand, aquifer depletion, and pollution- and climate-change induced water stress. Integrated sustainable water resource management is an area requiring innovation, progress, and international cooperation in the coming decades.





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Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation (RRI) Model

     1. Model Structure Overview


Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation (RRI) model is a two-dimensional model capable of simulating rainfall-runoff and flood inundation simultaneously (Sayama et al., 2012, Sayama et al., 2015). The model deals with slopes and river channels separately. At a grid cell in which a river channel is located, the model assumes that both slope and river are positioned within the same grid cell. The channel is discretized as a single line along its centerline of the overlying slope grid cell. The flow on the slope grid cells is calculated with the 2D diffusive wave model, while the channel flow is calculated with the 1D diffusive wave model. For better representations of rainfall-runoff-inundation processes, the RRI model simulates also lateral subsurface flow, vertical infiltration flow and surface flow. The lateral subsurface flow, which is typically more important in mountainous regions, is treated in terms of the discharge-hydraulic gradient relationship, which takes into account both saturated subsurface and surface flows. On the other hand, the vertical infiltration flow is estimated by using the Green-Ampt model. The flow interaction between the river channel and slope is estimated based on different overflowing formulae, depending on water-level and levee-height conditions.


Schematic diagram of Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation (RRI) Model (Sayama et al., 2012)


2. Model Features

1) RRI is a 2D model simulating for rainfall-runoff and flood inundation simultaneously.
2) It simulates flows on land and in river and their interactions at a river basin scale.
3) It simulates lateral subsurface flow in mountainous areas and infiltration in flat areas.

RRI Model is free downloadable from ICHARM website in this link http://www.icharm.pwri.go.jp/research/rri/rri_top.html





Application of RRI Model in the Mekong River Basin (Try et al., 2018, 2020)



References

Sayama, T., G. Ozawa, T. Kawakami, S. Nabesaka and K. Fukami (2012). "Rainfall–runoff–inundation analysis of the 2010 Pakistan flood in the Kabul River basin." Hydrological Sciences Journal 57(2): 298-312.

Sophal, T., L. Giha, Y. Wansik, O. Chantha and J. Changlae (2018). "Large-scale Flood Inundation Modeling in the Mekong River Basin." Journal of Hydrologic Engineering. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001664.

Try S., Tanaka S., Tanaka K., Sayama T., Lee G., Oeurng C. (2020). Assessing the effects of climate change on flood inundation in the Lower Mekong Basin using high-resolution AGCM outputs. Progress in Earth and Planetary Science. doi: 10.1186/s40645-020-00353-z.

Try S., Tanaka S., Tanaka K., Sayama T., Hu M., Sok T., Oeurng C. (2020). Projection of extreme flood inundation in the Mekong River Basin under 4 K increasing scenario using large ensemble climate data. Hydrological Processes. doi: 10.1002/hyp.13859.

Try S., Tanaka S., Tanaka K., Sayama T., Oeurng C., et al. (2020). Comparison of gridded precipitation datasets for rainfall-runoff and inundation modeling in the Mekong River Basin. PloS One, 15(1),e0226814.


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Thursday, December 29, 2016

Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE)


The Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) predicts the long-term average annual rate of erosion on a field slope based on rainfall pattern, soil type, topography, crop system and management practices. USLE only predicts the amount of soil loss that results from sheet or rill erosion on a single slope and does not account for additional soil losses that might occur from gully, wind or tillage erosion. This erosion model was created for use in selected cropping and management systems, but is also applicable to non-agricultural conditions such as construction sites. The USLE can be used to compare soil losses from a particular field with a specific crop and management system to "tolerable soil loss" rates. Alternative management and crop systems may also be evaluated to determine the adequacy of conservation measures in farm planning.
The USLE model comprises five parameters: rainfall erosivity factor, soil erodibility factor, slope length factor, slope gradient factor, vegetation cover and management factor, and support practice management factor. The accuracy of USLE estimation is dependent on the spatial resolution of the input data. The USLE model is expressed by Equation:

A = R x K x LS x C x P  

þ  A represents the potential long-term average annual soil loss in tonnes per hectare (tons per acre) per year. This is the amount, which is compared to the "tolerable soil loss" limits.

þ  R is the rainfall and runoff factor by geographic location. The greater the intensity and duration of the rain storm, the higher the erosion potential. R factor can be calculated by the formula of Lo et al. (1985) for application:

R = 38.46+3.489P

where is the annual mean rainfall erosivity (N h-1 yr-1) and is the average annual precipitation (cm).

This equation is generalized by Kenneth & Jeremy (1994). After changing the unit of mean annual precipitation to mm yr-1 and the unit of R by multiplying by 10 to obtain SI units (MJ mm ha-1 h-1yr-1), Eq. (2) is simplified as follows:

R = 38.46+0.35P

where R is the rainfall erosivity (10 MJ mm ha-1 h-1yr-1) and P is the mean annual precipitation (mm yr-1). This equation is considered an appropriate estimator of rainfall erosion in tropical or subtropical climate regions (Eiumnoh, 2000).

þ K is the soil erodibility factor. It is the average soil loss in tonnes/hectare (tons/acre) for a particular soil in cultivated, continuous fallow with an arbitrarily selected slope length of 22.13 m (72.6 ft) and slope steepness of 9%. K is a measure of the susceptibility of soil particles to detachment and transport by rainfall and runoff. Texture is the principal factor affecting K, but structure, organic matter and permeability also contribute.

þ  LS is the slope length-gradient factor. The LS factor gives the effects of topography, such as the length and steepness of slopes, which are closely related to the amount of soil erosion. It has been shown that the steeper slope is, the higher the velocity of overland flow, which increases soil loss. is used to calculate the LS factor (Mitasova & Mitas, 1999) :


where LS is the slope-length and steepness factor (no unit), θ is the slope angle (degree), Flow Accumulation is used to integrate flow direction in the calculated LS, and Cellsize is the DEM resolution. The following picture is an example of Annual Average Precipitation and DEM in Mekong River Basin.


 þ  C is the crop/vegetation and management factor. It is used to determine the relative effectiveness of soil and crop management systems in terms of preventing soil loss. The C factor is a ratio comparing the soil loss from land under a specific crop and management system to the corresponding loss from continuously fallow and tilled land. The C factor resulting from this calculation is a generalized C factor value for a specific crop that does not account for crop rotations or climate and annual rainfall distribution for the different agricultural regions of the country. This generalized C factor, however, provides relative numbers for the different cropping and tillage systems, thereby helping you weigh the merits of each system.


þ  P is the support practice factor. It reflects the effects of practices that will reduce the amount and rate of the water runoff and thus reduce the amount of erosion. The P factor represents the ratio of soil loss by a support practice to that of straight-row farming up and down the slope. The most commonly used supporting cropland practices are cross-slope cultivation, contour farming and strip cropping

Support Practice
P Factor
Up & down slope
1.0
Cross slope
0.75
Contour farming
0.50
Strip cropping, cross slope
0.37
Strip cropping, contour
0.25

This figure shows an example of result of soil erosion in Mekong River Basin. 
The result mentioned that the 3S sub-basin has high soil erosion risk.







by Sophal Try
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Credit to Hoang Thu Thuy for figures in case study of Mekong River Basin

Reference:

Eiumnoh, A (2000), “Integration of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Satellite Remote Sensing (SRS) for Watershed Management”, Technical Bulletin 150. Food & Fertilizer Technology Center, Taiwan.

FAO Proceedings of the validation forum on the Global Cassava development strategy (2000). “Strategic environmental assessment : An assessment of the impact of cassava production and processing on the environment and biodiversity”, Vol. 5, Food and Agriculture Organization of United Nations, International Fund for Agriculture Development.

Kenneth G. Renard, and Jeremy R. Freimund (1994). “Using Monthly Precipitation Data to Estimate the R-Factor in the Revised USLE”, Journal of Hydrology, Vol.157, pp. 287-306.

Lo A, El-Swaify S.A, Dangler E.W, and Shinshiro L (1985). “Effectiveness of Ei30 as an Erosivity Index in Hawaii”, Soil Erosion and Conservation, El-Swaify S.A., Moldenhauer W.C. & Lo A. (eds), Soil Conservation Society of America, Ankeny, Iowa, pp. 384-392.

Mitasova,H and Mitas.L (1999). “Modeling Soil Detachment with Rusle 3d Using GIS”, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Wednesday, May 11, 2016

GIS, RS & GPS

Geographic Information System (GIS)


Geographic Information System (GIS) is a computer-based information system that enables storage, management, capture, modeling, manipulation, retrieval, analysis and representation of geographically referenced data. GIS Technologies provide help in organizing huge databases in structure format. GIS allows the viewing and analysis of multiple layers of spatially related information associated with a geographic region/location.


GIS has been used in Environmental application, for example, Best Management Practices (BMPs) for Non-Point Source Pollution Control, Storm Water Management, Watershed Management, Spill Control Planning and Response, Hazardous Material Management, Air Pollution Management and Planning, Wetlands Delineation, Forestry Management, Mining and Geologic Resource Management, and Wildlife Habitat Management.

Remote Sensing (RS)


Remote Sensing is the science of obtaining information about objects or area from a distance without physical contact, typically from aircraft or satellite.
Remote Sensing is useful for generating environmental indicators with multi-resolution, multi-scale, multi-spectral, quick appropriate method, unbiased mapping and monitoring of natural resources both in space and time domain. RS provides timely and accurate information on spatial distribution of Land Use, Soil, Elevation, Precipitation, Vegetation, Forest, Geology, Water Resources, and other useful parameters.
RS addresses the impacts of natural resources and socio-economic aspects before, during, end, and post development projects, for example, Hydropower dam constructions.
RS has been used as indicators for natural resources impact parameters such as Surface Runoff, Water Resource Development, Groundwater level/yield, Variety of Irrigated Area, Crop Diversity, Crop yield, Crop intensity, Fodder availability, Afforestation, Deforestation, Climate Change, Biodiversity, Land Use Change, Socio-Economic, and Migration Status.


Global Positioning System (GPS)


GPS Technology has provided an indispensable tool for management of agriculture and natural resources. GPS is a satellite and ground-based radio navigation and locational system that enables the user to determine very accurate locations on the surface of the earth. Simple and Inexpensive GPS units are available with accuracies of 3 to 20 meters, and some more sophisticated precision agricultural systems can obtain centimeter level accuracies.



Application of GIS, GPS and RS


The usage of GIS, GPS, and RS technologies, either individually or combination, span a broad range of applications and degrees of complexity. Simple applications might involve determining the location of sampling sites, plotting maps for use in field, or examining the distribution of soil types in relation to yields and productivity, for example. More complex applications take advantage of the analytical capabilities of GIS and RS software including vegetation classification for predicting crop yield or environmental impacts, modeling of surface water drainage patterns, or tracking animal migration patterns.

Reference


Milla, K. A., Lorenzo, A., & Brown, C. (2005). GIS, GPS, and remote sensing technologies in extension services: Where to start, what to know. Journal of extension, 43(3).

Bhunia, G. S., Dikhit, M. R., Kesari, S., Sahoo, G. C., & Das, P. (2011). Role of remote sensing, geographic bioinformatics system and bioinformatics in kala-azar epidemiology. Journal of biomedical research, 25(6), 373-384.

by Sophal Try
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Wednesday, March 30, 2016

What Is El Niño?


El Niño (Spanish word for male child) is a naturally occurring event in the equatorial region which causes temporary changes in the world climate. El Niño refers to a whole complex of Pacific Ocean sea-surface temperature changes and global weather events. The ocean warming off South America is just one of these events. Every three to seven years, an El Niño event may happen during many months to more than one year causing economic and atmospheric worldwide. The worst El Niño occurred in 1997-1998.
In contrast, La Niña (Spanish word for female child) refers to an anomaly of unusually cold sea surface temperatures found in the eastern tropical Pacific. La Niña occurs roughly half as often as El Niño.